Indian Military

The tranquil waters of South China Sea appear to churn with insecurity. At a recent conference in Vietnam, Professor Carl Thayer, a noted Vietnam watcher, observed that “China's naval modernisation represents a challenge and potential threat to all of Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam,” Further, the Chinese naval nuclear capability “would have strategic implications for the balance of power in the region”. The Southeast Asian countries have watched the growing military might of China with concern and are also worried about the regional security environment particularly in the context of recent naval standoffs between the Chinese and US navies.A non-binding multilateral agreement ‘2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea’ with specific focus on the Spratly Islands has been in place, but China does not seem to be very happy about this arrangement and feels that ‘disputes [be] dealt with bilaterally by countries - a move seen as exploiting its growing regional clout’. Although the 2002 declaration was a concrete step to institutionalize regional dialogue among the claimants i.e. Brunei, China, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam and served for the de-escalation of military tensions in South China Sea, it appears that it was only a provisional political agreement to dispel ‘China Threat’ among the claimant states.

The region is believed to contain large deposits of oil and gas and has rich marine resources including fish. Both China and Vietnam lay claim to the Spratly and Paracel group of islands and the two sides have been engaged in a naval skirmish in 1988, when the Chinese occupied the Paracel Island. Meanwhile, Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines claim some parts of the Spratly group of islands and Taiwan lays claim and also occupies some of the islands in South China Sea.

In fact the ‘2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea’  provided China an opportunity to exercise its ‘charm wand’ over Southeast Asian countries  through a number of initiatives that pivot on joint development of resources in South China Sea , Free Trading Arrangements, financial and technological support for the Straits of Malacca, to name a few. Be that as it may, the reverberations of China’s rise and its military modernisation are being felt across the entire swath of Southeast Asia. Further, China’s assertive and sweeping claims over the entire South China Sea appear to have neutered its charm offensive.

Naval and Air Infrastructure in South China Sea

China has built significant military infrastructure on some of the islands in South China Sea. In particular, upgrading of infrastructure at Woody Island and the new naval base at Sanya, Hainan Island are of interest.  The Woody Island hosts a range of military related infrastructure including a well developed runway for military aircraft, a mobile missile battery, naval facilities for ships and a network of intelligence and communication infrastructure. The Sanya Naval base has sophisticated infrastructure to host both nuclear and conventional submarine and is a perfect launching point for nuclear submarines into the Pacific Ocean. Some of the recent pictures taken by satellites provide a detailed layout of the submarine related infrastructure at an island off Hainan and what perhaps merits attention is that a network of tunnels across the island serves as submarine pens.
The Chinese military has deployed a variety of modern military aircraft like the Su27, Su30, and the JF 10 that can be staged from either Hainan or the Woody Islands thus facilitating quick response to any military contingency in the South China Sea. With mid-air refuelling, these aircraft have enhanced loiter time and their standoff weapon capability makes them formidable.

The above developments forced the other claimants, particularly Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan to invest significant resources to develop military capability to prevent China engage in any adventurous moves in the disputed islands. These countries are acquiring offensive platforms such as submarines, multi role aircraft and missiles. Among these, Malaysia has followed an aggressive acquisition strategy. A look at the acquisition trends by Malaysia shows that submarines and multi role fighters are finding an important position in the military inventory. Under a US$972 million deal with the French military shipyard, Direction des Constructions Navales Services in partnership with the Spanish shipyard Navatia, Malaysia acquired two Scorpene class submarines. The first vessel, KD Tunku Abdul Rahman, joined the fleet in September 2009 and according to King Mizan Zainal Abidin, “The acquisition enables the navy in particular, and the Malaysian Armed Forces in general, to develop a more credible and capable military force in the region.” Also, an overhauled and refurbished Agosta 70, an ex-French navy submarine was offered to the Malaysian crew for initial training. Malaysia has also built a submarine base at Teluk Sapangar, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah for which contract was  awarded to M/S Trans Resources Corporation for the design, construction, completion, testing and commissioning of the base. The base is overlooking South China Sea and provides an easy getaway into the ocean. Malaysia also acquired Su 30 aircraft from Russia.

Vietnam too has a history of operating Soviet/Russian aircraft. Significantly, bulk of the aircraft inventory of the Vietnam People's Air Force and Vietnam People's  Navy is of Soviet/Russian origin and thus Vietnam has less difficulty in operating modern Russian aircraft like the Su 27 / Su30 and Soviet / Russian naval platforms. In December 2009, during his visit to Moscow, the Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung signed a US $ 2 billion for purchase of 6 Kilo Class submarines and 12 SU-30MKK fighter jets. Vietnam and China have a long history of animosity that is marked by the 1979 Indochina War, a border skirmish in 1981, and the 1988 naval confrontation over the Paracel Islands.

Much of Philippines aviation and naval inventory is of U.S. origin with a limited numbers of fighter aircraft and ships. Significantly, the current Philippine Air Force efforts are aimed at supporting government forces in counter-insurgency missions. Manila has focused on helicopter gunships and troop lift capability and not much thought has gone into acquiring modern fighters or ships. Unlike Philippines, Taiwan faces several challenges for acquisition of military hardware as no country is willing to sell arms to Taipei for fear of reaction from China who considers Taiwan a renegade province. Besides what it can develop indigenously, Taiwan has relied on the U.S. for most of its military needs. Every U.S. military sale to Taiwan draws sharp reaction from China.

Dual Use for Islands

While that may be the approach to building military deterrence, the claimant states have chosen a very peculiar strategy for augmentation of military infrastructure that pivots on tourism and marine leisure industry. Several islets are being developed as tourism destinations and the leisure industry is being invited to invest. What is noteworthy is that these initiatives have resulted in a number of airstrips on the islets. These are short in length, and can stage smaller aircraft including helicopters, but are not equipped for extended staging facility.

Currently, there are four known airstrips of various sizes on the Spratly Islands. Rancudo Airfield (1300 meters) on the Pagasa, occupied by the Philippines, is the longest and C130 transport aircraft land on a regular basis. Islets occupied by Malaysia (Swallow Reef or Layang Layang), Vietnam (Truong Sa Lon) and Taiwan (Taipingdao) are home to 600 meter air strips while Brunei has not invested in any such facility. The islands are unsinkable aircraft carriers and it is possible to stage smaller military aircraft of the VSTOL (vertical short takeoff and landing) variety.

The forward deployed aircraft can serve as deterrent and also be put into combat at short notice till reinforcements come from mainland. According to the Taiwanese Air Force Chief, Liu Kui-li ‘Because of the strong likelihood that landing strips at air bases will come under intensive missile attack and be destroyed during a war with China, the air force considers fighters with VSTOL capabilities to be most suitable for Taiwan’s defense… The air force is open to any kind of VSTOL fighters, and is not necessarily aiming for the US' Joint Strike Fighters [JSF] that are in development’. For both the Philippines and Taiwan, the best option is to examine F-35 Lightning II that is currently being developed by the US as a VSTOL version.

The claimants have been reproachful of each other’s actions to develop tourism infrastructure on the islands and consider these as violation of sovereignty that can have severe impact on regional peace. For instance, in 2005, Vietnam reacted sharply to Taiwanese attempts to build a runway on the Taipingdao Island. In 2008, the representatives of the Philippines and Vietnam in Taiwan once again reacted to the planned visit to the islands by Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian. Pham Manh Hai, deputy head of the Vietnam Economic and Cultural Office (VECO) noted "We were always concerned about the sovereignty issue of the Spratly Islands. And we condemn any action that violates the sovereignty of Vietnam," and Antonio Basilio, Representative of the Manila Economic and Cultural Office (MECO) observed "We didn't want the situation to escalate into something that might generate tensions in the region…We don't want to make it an issue now."

Similarly, in 2004, China expressed its concerns over Vietnamese tourism activity in the ‘Truong Sa’ islands. Malaysia has established a marine park on the Swallow Reef. Although the exchanges among claimants have been limited to verbal spats, such activity has the potential to escalate into an incident if any claimant attempts to enhance military activity to support tourism.

Case for BrahMos

While the claimants acquire aircraft and submarines, they are also looking for modern missiles to give them standoff capability. An option available to Vietnam and Malaysia is the BrahMos missile jointly developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation, India and Federal State Unitary Enterprise "NPO Mashinostroyenia" (NPOM), Russia. According to the manufactures, the missile is suitable for fitment onboard the Su 30 aircraft and submarines (Kilo / Amur class).  The Su 30 can be fitted with up to three missiles, one under the fuselage and the other two can be mounted on wing pylons after strengthening the support points. As far as submarines are concerned, up to eight missiles packaged in containers can be fitted on the Russian Amur class submarines. However, it is not known if it is feasible to fit the BrahMos on the French Scorpene, or the German (HDW) U212 / U214 or other European subsurface platforms.

Concluding Remarks

The South China Sea claimants have so far endeavoured to keep military activity in the area to routine deployment. However, as energy demands grow and intense exploration / production of hydrocarbons begin in South China Sea, exploitation of resources in disputed areas is bound to raise tensions in the region. Also, any attempts at using tourism infrastructure for military purposes in Spratly Islands can undermine the prevalent security scene.

The current naval inventory and future acquisition trends among the claimants is worrisome. Further, the future commitment by China to uphold the ‘2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea’ is of utmost concern to the claimants. On their part, the claimants continue to build their own military capability to deter China and in some cases (Philippines and Vietnam) consolidate themselves through bilateral military engagements with the US.

For India, the South China Sea region gains salience in terms of its trade with the Asia pacific region. Nearly 55 percent of India’s trade transits through the Straits of Malacca which funnels out in to the South China Sea for onward transit to China, Japan, Korea and the United States. Any insecurity in the region could adversely impact on India’s trade and economy.

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